Circana Forecasts Office Supplies Market to Reach $11.1 Billion in 2026 as Pricing Offsets Ongoing Volume Declines
Back-to-school and promotions drive critical demand for the industry
CHICAGO, July 09, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- CHICAGO – July 9, 2026 — Circana, LLC today released its latest Future of™ Office Supplies forecast, revealing a category in transition. Despite ongoing macroeconomic pressures and softer demand, the U.S. office supplies industry is projected to reach $11.1 billion in sales in 2026,
representing a modest 0.1% decline versus 2025, as higher prices continue to offset declining unit volumes. Across the industry, unit sales are projected to fall 2.8% in 2026, while ASPs rise roughly 2.8%, reinforcing a long-term pattern of price-driven performance. Circana forecasts a continued “rightsizing” of the office supplies sector through 2028, with a relatively flat forecast horizon, and uneven growth concentrated in select segments.
“While the office supplies industry continues to face headwinds and demand pressures, the outlook reveals a degree of consumer resilience, with pricing acting as the primary growth lever,” said Ben Arnold, industry advisor, Office Supplies at Circana. “Promotions and seasonal events like back-to-school shopping are increasingly critical demand drivers as consumers exhibit more trade-down behaviors.”
Rising costs and inflationary pressures continue to shape consumer behavior. Average selling prices (ASPs) have increased approximately 5% year to date, while actual unit prices are up as much as 7%, contributing to a 4% decline in total unit volumes. Such increases have created a value-driven environment where seasonal events are even more important. While back-to-school will capture a disproportionate share of annual spending, with consumers prioritizing promotional periods to manage budgets, Circana expects rising prices to support growth of just under 1% during this year’s back-to-school shopping season.
While the broader office supply industry remains flat to slightly down, several segments are expected to outperform in 2026, such as writing instruments, specialty tape and self-stick notes, and creative and art-related supplies. At the same time, slight declines persist in core categories like coloring/art, office paper, and presentation/reference.
Structural Shifts Reshape Demand
As much as consumer behavior is impacting office supply industry trends, retail dynamics are evolving. Ecommerce continues to gain share, hybrid work trends are shifting some commercial purchases into retail channels, and third-party marketplaces are expanding their influence. But there is also a battle between tech and analog that is redefining the market. Investments in technology and AI are diverting traditional office supplies budgets, while a growing creative and analog movement supports demand for artistic and non-digital tools.
“Current shifting dynamics are fundamentally reshaping both retail and commercial demand for office supplies,” Arnold added. “While digital adoption continues to accelerate, there remains strong interest in tactile, creative, and analog solutions. The essential role of office supplies — particularly during key seasonal moments — continues to support the industry’s resilience.”
About Circana
Circana is a leader in providing technology, AI, and data to fast-moving consumer packaged goods companies, durables manufacturers, and retailers seeking to optimize their businesses. Circana’s predictive analytics and technology empower clients to measure their market share, understand the underlying consumer behavior driving it, and accelerate their growth. Circana’s Liquid Data® technology platform is powered by an expansive, high-quality data set, and intelligent algorithms trained on six decades of domain expertise. With Circana, clients can take immediate action to future-proof and evolve their growth strategies amid an increasingly complex, fast-paced, and ever-changing economy.
Janine Marshall Circana janine.marshall@circana.com
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